Britons didn’t have trust on Truss on 6th Septemberand markets didn’t trust the cut in taxes that led her to the PM’s seat. Now the resignation by Liz Truss as the leader of the Conservative Party some hours ago rises the count of burnt Conservative PMs to 5 in the latest six years and to 2 since the Brexit negotiations started off, leading to the need for the Tories to find the right candidate able to deal with the economic downturn, food and energy crisis and a possible hike in COVID-19contagions next winter.
The shortest lasting PM, but not only by the failed tax cut project
“We delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance.
And we set out a vision for a low tax, high growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit.
I recognise though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party.
I have therefore spoken to His Majesty The King to notify him that I am resigning as Leader of the Conservative Party,” said Liz Truss today ahen announcing her resignation.”
Fail to deliver on the mandate on which I was elected says Truss, but the truth is that the quit by the PM comes after the House of Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle said he had ordered an investigation into the fact that Tory MPs were pressed to vote in support of the fracking plans of the Government. Shale gas sourcing was one of the star measures of Truss’ economic programme aimed to deal with the gas supply crisis triggered by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Anyway, whoever the new leader of the Tories and new PM might be he or she should take into account that populist solutions for an economic crisis rising UK’s deficit through tax cuts with no cuts in State spending may be supported by the Conservative party but will no way be supported by the markets and hardly convince British people.
Following the outcomes of a poll taken by You Gov just before Liz Truss took office, Britons were split on whether she would be a better PM than Boris Johnson, “but tended to think she’d be worse than every other Prime Minister back to Thatcher”
Just 12% of respondents considered that Liz Truss would make for a decent Prime Minister.
Truss sets a record as the shortest lasting UK PM in office (hardly 45 days) . She will keep on leading UK Government till the Conservative party elects her successor.
Finding quickly a trusted successor, vital for the Tories: Three front runners, including Boris Johnson
Under one of the worst losses of confidence on the tory option among Britons, finding the right candidate to succeed Liz Truss becomes a critical need for the Conservative Party.
Former chancellor Rishi Sunak, previous front runner Penny Mordaunt, even the recently resigned Boris Johnsoh emmerge as favorite candidates to succeed Truss.
Among them Rishi seems the favorite for the markets (47% probability), while Mordaunt is seen as not enough experienced and with the feast scandal investigation still on course Johnson seems far from a chance to win.
Conservative party supporters and the same Liz Truss hope for a quick change in leadership within next week, having in mind that the current Chancellor of Exchequerer, Jeremy Hunt, has to deliver a fiscal statement on 31st October, this time including economics and fiscal forecasts from the independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR).
The Conservative Party must now hold a contest, starting with members of the parliamentary party who will vote and eliminate potential candidates, until there are two remaining.
The processes will be accelerated and be completed by the end of next week (28th October 2022), but shouldn’t one of the final two candidates concede, leading the remaining candidate to win the contest and become the next Prime Minister, the contest will produce two clear opposing candidates and a ballot, which is likely to take another 4-5 weeks, will be held amongst party members.
Despite the leadership crisis within the Conservative Party could last longer than one week the likelihood for the PM to convoke anticipated elections is scarce given the wide majority earned by the Tories thanks to Boris Johnson in the latest Parliamentary elections and the rising strenth of the Keir Starner (leader of the Labor Party) in the polls.