The global ad market is on course for 4.6% growth this year, up from 3.9% rise last year, according to ZenithOptimedia’s new Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, published today
Despite some economic headwinds, the media ad company belonging to Publicis Group maintains its foretell just 0.1% under the published on January 2016.
Global advertising expenditure will total $579Bn in 2016, will exceed the $600Bn in 2017 and reach the $603Bn by the end of the year 2018.
Main headwinds to watch
The agency quotes the following a mong the main instability factors putting at risk the investment in 2016: the ongoing slowdown in China, and recession in Brazil and Russia; the humanitarian disaster originating in Syria; and uncertainty over the future of the European Union, notably continuing fragility in Greece and the possible departure of the UK.
Three reasons for optimism:quarennial events; quick recovery in Europe and 30 new fast growing markets
But there are three main reasons why ZenithOptimedia keeps optimistic on the advertitisng growth forecast for 2016.
First , the special events taking place this year, mainly the elections in the USA, The Olympics in Brazil and the FIFA Euro cup in Europe.
ZenithOptimedia expects these events to add a net $6.1Bn to the global ad market in 2016 (3.2Bn from the elections, 2Bn from the Olympics and 0.9Bn from the football). The quadrennial will therefore add 1.1 percentage points to this year’s growth rate for global advertising expenditure, which would otherwise be 3.5%.
Second, the quick recovery of the Uropean markets most affected by the eurozone crisis.
In Ireland, Portugal and Spain adspend fell by a total 45% between 2007 and 2013. Adspend in these markets recovered by 8.9% in 2014 and 7.3% in 2015.
ZenithOptimedia forecast average growth of 6.7% a year to 2018 for these countries.
Other European markets that fell sharply during the crisis but are now growing at a quick pace include: Croatia (forecast to grow by 6.1% a year to 2018), Denmark (+7.3%), Hungary (+5.2%) and Romania (+6.3%). Even Greece is expected to enjoy annual increase of 3.9%. These markets have room to grow rapidly for several years to come. “After all, they have a lot of ground to make up” points Barnard.
And the third reason for optimism is that, ZennithOptimedia identifies 30 fast growing new emergin markets, that will push ad spending increase in the next few years with average growth each year at the 15%.
The emerging new markets bring hope
Among the 30 new emerging ad markets they are inclcuded: Algeria, Angola, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guatemala, Iran, Jamaica, Kenya, Laos, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Paraguay, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Trinidad & Tobago, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia.
ZenithOptimedia expects that the advertising expenditure in these 30 markets will grow at an average rate of 15% each year between 2015 and 2018, more than three times faster than the global average. The size of the quoted 30 new markets is forecast to increase by $3.9Bn, an amount equal to the current size of Sweden’s ad market, to the $11.6Bn.
Advertising accounted for 0.37% of GDP across these 30 markets in 2015, well below the global average of 0.70%. This means that the new emerging markets have a great long term growth potential.
ZenithOptimedia provides more information on these countries in a new report, called the Thirty Rising Media Markets
Image over the headline.- © ZenithOptimedia.
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